Originally posted on ARCH-USA
There is something I like to do every few days when preparing to write a Should You Buy To Flip? I browse the SNKRS site to see if I was right or wrong about my predictions. What does browsing help me with? Nike is very good about updating the information on their site. It allows them to market a particular style a bit more if the shoe isn’t selling through. In establishing the prowess of their DTC funnel being able to move the shoes through a Nike source means that all of the Futures orders and Wholesale orders are literally profit.
I browse because it gives me a chance to see what actually sold out for the brand. The SNKRS page typically has in its FEED section about 48 pair of shoes before you have to LOAD more images. The great thing about this is that you also have a hover option when you’re on your desktop. You don’t have this feature on mobile. Of the 48 models shown before you load this is the breakdown
Coming Soon = 9
Learn More = 3
Buy Now = 24
Sold Out = 12
Using this small data we can create what can be considered a microcosm of Nike’s sales data to analyze the current market, as it relates to Nike. I can also make a logical relation that since Nike controls the majority of the market that this trend holds for other brands as well. It’s a stretch, but go with it.
We remove the Learn More and Coming Soon which leaves Buy Now and Sold Out. Nike sells out of 50% of its inventory via NDC/SNKRS. This is very good, but doesn’t allow us to look at the market. Lately Should You Buy To Flip has been hard on Jordan Brand and Nike. The resale market is not the same as it is for the retail market. My resale is very closely related to the retail market so I have two data points to analyze with SNKRS and ARCH.
Let’s break it down further. We have to look at the shoes in the Buy Now and Sold Out sections and look at styles. 36 pair total. This is difficult because Nike is re-releasing/retro footwear and those shoes should be considered lifestyle, but they are also in running and basketball. What’s worse is that New releases have an overlap area so this will be difficult.
- For the purpose of this discussion I will create categories as best as I can: Nike Basketball (includes Jordan Brand basketball), Retro Jordan Brand, Lifestyle (includes retro Nike releases that have become casual wear including Nike basketball), New Releases.
- These categories will be broken down into Sold Out and In Stock numbers.
Nike Basketball (including Jordan Brand) = 4 total
In Stock = 2 (Both Jordan XXX1 releases N7 and Chicago)
Sold Out = 2 (Kobe AD, LeBron 13 Low Fit For The King)
Retro Releases from Jordan Brand = 3 total
In Stock = 2 (Air Jordan 12 Royal Suede, Air Jordan 9 Kobe)
Sold Out = 1 (Air Jordan 1 Black Toe)
Lifestyle (includes retro Nike releases that have become casual wear including Nike basketball) = 26 total
In Stock = 18 (Air Foamposite Pro Dr. Doom, Griffey Wheat, Air Max 90 Winter Ready Wheat, Air Max Tn La Requin, Air Unlimited, Women’s Huarache, Women’s Air Force 1, Nike Duckboot, Dunk High Red Velvet, Air Force 1 High Flax, Women’s Air Force 1 High Flax, Women’s Air Max 95 Winter Ready,Women’s Air Max 90 Ultra PRM, Air Footscape Woven, Women’s Mid Air Force 1 PRM,
Sold Out = 8 (Air Force 1 Patriots, Air Force 1 Mid Flax, Air Force 1 Ultra N7, Women’s Air Max 90 Winter Ready Wheat, Air Force 1 Utility – 4 Colors
New Releases = 3 total
In Stock = 2 (Air TR V Cruz, Lunar Magista II FK)
Sold Out = 1 (Nike Flyknit Racer Earth Tones)
Now I could take the time to add my data in to make this a more concise analysis, but I will only focus on this research to discuss the market.
Nike Basketball: Although basketball season is in Nike isn’t dedicating the majority of resources to bball shoes. By the most recent SNKRS releases only 4 have been hoops shoes. Not surprising new Jordans don’t sell, but this one is a little strange because the two shoes that sold out were very limited releases. The Kobe is a completely new design, but I said that this shoe would do well because it translates to lifestyle due to a lot of running shoe elements. Nike has placed an emphasis on retro and lifestyle.
Retro Releases from Jordan Brand: While Jordan Brand has always been a strong performer, the love affair has slowed down considerably and I don’t see a pick up even with the upcoming Space Jam pack. Will the Space Jam sell out? Probably but the rest of the line will linger for a few weeks. This is evident in the Retro drops on SNKRS. The Royal Suede and Kobe should have been hits, but both shoes can still be found in stock at retail. The Black Toe was a more limited release, but that shoe always does well.
Lifestyle (includes retro Nike releases that have become casual wear including Nike basketball): The trends shifted to retro and lifestyle, and Nike went hard into this category, but it stumbled big time. With 26 total pair, only 8 sold through. That’s a 30% sell through. This means that Nike’s control of lifestyle has been knocked down considerably. Even with the Dr. Doom Foamposite release and several limited items the category was rough, but I have to say the majority of releases were in preparation for the Fall/Winter and with the mild weather, this hurt the recent lifestyle releases from Nike. When Nike went hard on limited Air Force 1 styled releases they performed much better than retro running and lifestyle. Which only verifies that casual and style never dies with the Air Force 1.
New Releases: One of the three new releases was not a mainstream release. The Magista has a very limited audience and in many ways it can be considered a lux release due to the pricepoint. The Cruz however never really took off as a replacement of the Nike Yeezy line. The White Bone colorway should have been a popular style, but none of those models have really sold well. I don’t see it continuing into a new model or colorways. However, the one new release that could place Nike back into a great position is the Flyknit Racer. The Earth Tone Sold out. All Flyknit Racers sell out. If Nike had taken the time to develop the Flyknit quite possibly the adidas NMD would not have caught on in such a big way. Then again at 120 Nike got beat at its own game and they still haven’t adjusted. They are finally releasing an all black Racer, but it may be a little too late.
What does all of this say? Nike releases a ton of shoes. Even with all of their misses, they still sell out of 50% of their inventory through their own sales channels quickly. Will Nike adjust and begin to beat adidas back? I don’t see it happening this holiday season as they haven’t generated any Flyknits that can rival the wool and Chukka City socks from NMD and Adidas.
Let me know what you think about this post. If the response is solid I will add this as a bi-monthly post.
Update: The Dr. Doom Foamposite is now Sold Out on SNKRS
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