The Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC released in the month of August and was a success both in the retail and the third party markets. As you all know I write a great deal of projection posts, and one of the recurring question that I get from people is- should I hold on to my shoe or sell it now? I even received a question from a betting website asking me what shoe to invest in for the month to come. This definitely tells me that most people aren’t really interested in acquiring these sneakers for the sake of wearing them. It’s not like I’m telling you something you don’t already know, I just had to reiterate it. I decided to create a new rubric on the website where I’ll be making projections about the value of sneakers of my choice over the next few months or years. And the first shoe that caught my attention is the Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC. I collected a lot of my data via eBay ( because I can verify the sales) but I’ll be incorporating other marketplaces as time progresses. So the months covered were August, September and October . So what I’ll do is study the data collected, recognize certain trends and tell you when when the shoe will be worth $500, $600 or more.
Let’s start with the month of August: ( I’ll lay out the data and then the box plot will follow)
Now we’ll first the five number summary and make our inferences
The average resale value based on the data collected is about $327.08. More than half of the shoes were sold within the $259 to $380 interval and the median is slightly close to the average value so we can assume that the average value during the month of August was about $329.99.
I do have to find the outliers to clarify the information above so let’s do that now:
our cut off values are $77.5 and $561.5 so anything that falls beyond these boundaries will be considered irregular. I do have to add the category below to clarify a few things:
1.sizes 8-8.5 sold within the $400-$530 range so the average sale value for those sizes is basically $465
2.sizes 11-13 sold within the $210 -$259 range so the average sale value for those sizes is about $235
3.mid sizes ( 9-10.5) were selling at the average sale value ( $329.99) and the highest number of sales were recorded within the range based on the boxplot above. So we’ll consider our average sale value for August to be $329.99.
Next is the month of September:
The first thing we notice here is that the number of sales went from 103 to 206, so it doubled from August to September. The average value also increased from $327.08 to $356.88. There is no need to search for any outliers since the shape of the box plot is almost normal. We still need to mention the categories below
1.sizes 8-8.5 sold within the $430-$525 range so the average sale value for those sizes is basically $477.5 ( there is a $12 increase from August To September)
2.sizes 11-13 sold within the $210 -$259 range so the average sale value for those sizes is about $242 ( there was a $7 increase from August to September)
3.mid sizes ( 9-10.5) were selling at the average sale value ( $356.88) indicating a $29.8 ( roughly $30) increase from August To September
Month Of October: value in us $
For the sake of keeping my sanity, i’ll only focus on the average value for the month of October and zero in on the mid sizes only ( anything between 9 and 10.5). Sizes 8-8.5 are selling at an average of $500 for the month of September while larger sizes are selling at an average of $240.
Now that we have our averages, let’s create a scatter plot and then we can predict what will happen in months or years to come.
Now let’s find our regression line equation based on the linear model given in the picture above. We’ll use the following data points: ( in terms of month of the year, and average value)
(August (8), $327.08), ( September (9), $356.88), (October (10), $345.67). I had to use my Ti-83 calculator to find the equation and it is:
Average Value= 9.295 x ( month of the year) + $259.555
So if you have a pair of the Air Jordan 1 Obsidian UNC ranging from size 9-10.5, when will it be worth $500, $600? We can easily use the equation above to find the month or the year in which that will take place. Let’s give it a shot
$500= 9.295 (t) + $259.555 and we’ll solve for t
t= ($500-$259.555)/ 9.295= 25.86 or 26 months
So in 26 months from today, that is in 2 years and 2 months ( in December of 2021 the Air Jordan 1 UNC in sizes 9.5-10.5 ) based on the model above will sell for $500.
Let’s also try to see when larger sizes ( sizes 11-13) will be worth $500. We’ll have to take the averages from each month and create another equation.
August average was $235, September was $242 and October is $240, so let’s create our regression equation since this will also be roughly linear with the line of best fit.
Average value ( larger sizes)= 2.5 ( month) + $216.5
When will it be worth $500, we’ll solve for t again
t= ($500-$216.5)/2.5= 113.4 or 9 years and half ( so I wouldn’t hold on to it for that long) based on the model above.
PS: model breakdowns always occur so everything I said in the paragraphs above is subject to change. The model above is supposed to give you a picture of what may happen if the trend stays the same.