Sneaker grails have been produced by JB and Travis Scott in the past. The same can be said for Hiroshi Fujiwara’s Fragment and the sportswear behemoth. This season, all three of them come together, and you can bet the outcome will be similar. Ladies and gentlemen , prepare yourselves for the Travis Scott Fragment Air Jordan 1 that will officially release on July the 29th and retails for $200. To reference Fujiwara’s go-to look, the shoe is mismatched and colored in white, blue, and black. The Swoosh, which is supersized and flipped on the lateral side, similar as Scott’s AJ1 from 2019, is maybe the most striking element. There’s also a stash pocket at the collar, as well as co-branding on the heels (a Cactus Jack face on one, Fragment’s lightning bolt on the other) to round things out.
This morning, my task is to come up with a good estimate of the number of pairs possibly produced. We will also check to see how the shoe is performing via third party marketplaces. But first, let’s get a list of all the stores receiving an inventory.
So far these are the only retailers that were confirmed. The next step is the most critical one, setting up our assumptions. We’ll go with the following:
- Footlocker, SNKRS and Travis Scott receive 70% of the total inventory
- The remaining boutiques will split the remaining 30%
- Boutiques will receive about 220 pairs per store
Boutiques ‘s numbers= 6 x 220 pairs= 1320 pairs. We assumed that this number represents about 30% of the total inventory produced, so the total then will be,
Total inventory=( 1320 x 3) + (1320/3)= 4400 pairs
Because of possible errors in our assumptions I’ll say that the total number of pairs produced may fall within 4000 pairs < Total number of pairs made < 10,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Travis Scott Fragment Air Jordan 1 Resale Value
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the average resale value by day of the Fragment Jordan 1 Travis Scott since July the 21st. I used the polynomial model to capture the data because it fits it the best. We can use the model to see how the shoe is going to do by July the 29th.
Resale Value= $2546-$95 (t)+ $10.4 (t^2) and t= time elapsed since July 21
Based on this equation, the resale value by July the 29th will be: $2546- $95 (8)+ $10.4 (8^2)=$2451.6 let say $2452
So the Jordan 1 Travis Scott will definitely resell for values within the $2200-$2500 range. The shoe has a retail value of $200 before tax, so folks are looking at profit margins within the $1700 and $2000 range.
You can buy it now on StockX, CLICK HERE
img via Nike
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