I wrote a post yesterday warning you about fake pairs of the PSG Air Jordan 4 that are already on the market, see link below to read the article
This morning we’ll try to figure out the possible number of pairs that could’ve been made. I can tell you at the outset that this shoe is going to be limited. I went to my local mall a couple of days ago, and none of the stores in that particular location were going to carry the Retro 4 PSG. I searched for confirmed retailers for North America for the model beside Nike and came up with the list below
The hardest part would be setting up the assumptions. Since the model is relatively limited, I’m going consider the following:
We’ll go with the following:
- FTL, FTA & Champs will receive ⅓ of the total inventory
- The remaining major & minor retailers will receive the remaining ⅓
- Only 1/3 of the regular FTL, FTA and Champs stores will be allocated, that is 334 FTL, 91 FTA and 183 Champs
- We also need to add that all HOH ( House of Hoops will receive the shoe), that is 170 HOH’s
We’ll also add the following assumptions:
- Each FTL will receive about 18 pairs, while FTA and Champs will be assigned 12 pairs per store
- Their online stores will receive about a 1/3 of the total the physical stores are receiving
- Eastbay will also receive another 1/3 from the total FTL, FTA and Champs online are receiving.
- HOH locations will be given about 70 pairs each
Running The Numbers:
FTL Physical stores=334 x 18= 6012 pairs
HOH = 170 x70=11900 pairs
FTA Physical stores=91×12= 1092 pairs
Champs Physical stores= 183x 12=2196 pairs
Online allocation ( FTL + FTA + Champs)=21200/3=7067 pairs
Eastbay= 7067/3=2356 pairs
Total from FTL, FTA, Champs and Eastbay = (6012+ 11900+ 1092+2196+7067+ 2356) pairs =30623 pairs and I’ll take this number up to 35,000 pairs because of possible errors I might have made in my assumptions.
We said that this number represented about 1/3 of North America’s total production hence
Total production for the USA is = 35,000 x3=105,000 pairs
Since this number only represents the production for North America, we can conclude that the total number of pairs of the PSG Air Jordan 4 made would fall within the
105,0000 < # of pairs made < 250,000
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Now let’s talk about the resell prediction
Resale Value VS Time
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the average resale value per day since October the 7th. Based on the data, the rate of change is negative, the shoe is trending down but I expect it to not go any lower than $275. I think the average consumer thinks this is going to be an easy shoe to get, but comes Saturday I expect the resale value to peak at $300. I may be wrong but I don’t expect the PSG 4 to sell for any less than $270 on third party marketplaces. We can say that the resale value will fall within the ( $275, $300) price range. Folks are looking at profit margins within the ( $25, $45) for mark ups within the (11%, 19%).
Let’s also look at a breakdown of the resale value by size
Based on the chart above bigger sizes ( size 11-14) yield to the highest revenues ( $290-$315). Smaller and Mid sizes yield to revenues in the high $200’s as you can see in the chart. The figure is self explanatory.
In conclusion I would say that the Air Jordan 4 PSG will certainly sell out instantly via retail. As far as resale purposes are concerned , I would say go for it as long as you are getting multiple pairs. I expect this shoe to gradually grow in value with time but don’t think this will yield to homeruns ( very high margins).
You can buy authentic pairs on eBay from our featured sellers, CLICK HERE
You can also watch the entire presentation