Yesterday I introduced the Wmns Air Jordan 4 Starfish and promised to write a projection post on its numbers. I collected some data this morning and we’ll try to come up with a fair estimate of the numbers pairs possibly made and the current resale value of the Retro 4 Starfish. First let’s get a count of the major and minor stores that were given an inventory in addition to Nike.
Major retailers: Footlocker, Footaction, Finishline, JD Sports
Minor retailers: Shoe Palace, DTLR, Shoe City, Shiekh, Jimmy Jazz and boutiques such as Nicekicks, Extra Butter, Renarts
Now we need to establish our assumptions and then run our numbers.
Assumptions:
- FTL, FTA will receive 40% of the total inventory
- Nike, the remaining major & minor retailers ( and boutiques as well )will receive the remaining 45%
- We can single out Nike (SNKRS) and assume that they will receive about 15%
We’ll also add the following assumptions:
- Each FTL will receive about 24pairs, while FTA swill be given 18 pairs per store
- Their online stores will receive about a 1/3 of the total the physical stores are receiving
- I counted about 112 Footlocker stores ( that’s about 1/9 of the total number of FTL within North America) and
- I’ll assume that 1/9 of FTA will be also allocated , that is a total 31 stores
Numbers:
Footlocker stores: 24 x 112= 2688 pairs
Footaction= 18 x 31= 558 pairs
(Footlocker + Footaction )online= ( 2688+ 558)/3= 1082 pairs
Total = (2688+ 558+ 1082)= 4328 pairs and we can stretch this number up to 4800 pairs for possible errors in our assumption.
We initially assumed that this total represented 40% of the entire allocation for North America, so to find the total number of pairs for the USA, we’ll do:
Grant total= (4800)+ (4800)+ (2400)=12,000 pairs and SNKRS’s allocation based on our assumption will be: 12,000 x (15%)= 1800 pairs
We can conclude that the total number of pairs made worldwide will wall within the 12,000 pairs < Global Production < 30,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Now let’s talk about resale
The chart above is a breakdown of the average resale value of the shoe per day since January the 11th. You can clearly see that from January 11 to January 14, the resale value was relatively high between ($270 and $292). There was a sudden drop between January 15 and 16 then it rose back up to high $280’s and then dropped significantly again on the 19th to $247. So we it’s a bit hard to project a firm value at this point, we’ll conclude that the shoe will resell anywhere between ($250 and $280). The best way to determine how well the shoe is going to do is investigate the resale value by size.
You can see clearly what sizes to aim for, sizes 5,11,11.5 and 12 recorded the highest revenues ranging from ($295-$341). Most other sizes ranged from $245-$277. The shoe retails for$212 after tax if you live in the state of Maryland. Profit margins will sit within the ($50-$100) on the most lucrative sizes and ($11 to $40) on the more moderate sizes. The shoe is definitely going to sell out.
Product Information/ Buy It now
Air Jordan 4 Starfish
- MSRP:$200
- Release Date: 2021-01-22
- Style Code:CW7183-100
- Color:Sail / Black / Starfish / Light Smoke Grey
You can buy it from on eBay now from our featured sellers via authenticity guaranteed, CLICK HERE
or refer to the stockists in the first paragraph
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