The Air Jordan 5 Alternate Bel-Air is the much-awaited follow up of Jordan Brand’s OG AJ 5 “Bel-Air” back from 2013 that was inspired by the 1990’s popular show “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” starring Will Smith, who wore the Air Jordan 5’s during various episodes. While the 90’s style popular detailing and vibrant colors are still there, the Alternate Bel-Air 5 features a white leather upper marked with a neon color that goes hand in hand with the purple midsoles, taking the shoes to a whole new level. Black detailing on the eyelets, laces, and tongue provide a sense of calm and contrast, making it a shoe for every occasion. I didn’t plan on writing a projection post on the shoe but given its “classic” status, I decided to do so. Let’s quickly get a count of the USA stockists allocated an inventory beside Nike.
Ruvilla/DTLR, Jimmy Jazz, Snipes, Shoe City, Sheikh, Shoe Palace, Eblens
Renarts, Nicekicks, Exclucity, Sneaker Politics, Bait, Bodega, Exclucity and a few more
Now let’s set up our assumptions:
There are close to a 1000 FTL stores, 272 FTA stores and 547 Champs stores.
- Nike will acquire 1/5 of the production, Footlocker, Footaction, Champs & Eastbay will also receive 2/5 , Finishline, JD sports, and Hibbett will receive 1/5 and all the minor retailers and boutiques will receive the remaining 1/5
- We’ll assign an average of 24 pairs per FTL store, 18 per FTA store & 18 per Champs; and we’ll give the online stores about 1/3 of the total the physical stores are given.
- We’ll also assign an extra ⅓ to Eastbay from the combined online allocations from FTL, FTA and Champs
Now we can run our numbers
Numbers For the Air Jordan 5 Ghost Green
Footlocker’s physical store numbers based on our assumptions: 24 x 1000=24000 pairs
Footaction’s numbers ( physical sores): 272 x 18=4896 pairs
Champs numbers ( physical stores): 547x 18=9846 pairs
Total from the three entities=38742 pairs
Extras for the e-shop ( 38742 x ⅓)=12914 pairs
Eastbay= 12914/3= 4305 pairs
Total from FTL & Family=55961 pairs. Since this number represents 2/5 of the production, the grand total for North America will be:
Grand Total= (55961 ) x 2 + (55961)/2 = 130, 902 pairs and based on possible errors in my assumptions I reserve the right to stretch this number to 150,000 pairs
We can double or triple that number if we consider the rest of the world and end up with a total production:
300,000 pairs < total Production< 450,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
The histogram above gives you a breakdown of the average value of the sales recorded between 8/12 and 8/14. The quick inference we can make about this shoe is that it will definitely sell out instantly. The current resale value is in the high $200’s ( $270-$280) and I’m assuming that this value will remain steady. I don’t expect it to drop any lower than $270. This shoe is certainly going to hold its value. Its retail price is about $200 before tax and roughly $212 after tax. Folks are looking at profit margins within the ($45-$60) range for mark ups within the (22%-27%) range. Let’s also see sizes that lead to the highest revenues
You can clearly see what sizes to aim for if you’re looking to maximize your earnings. This is self explanatory.
The Air Jordan 5 Alternate Bel-Air is set to release on August 15th and will retail for $200 as I said earlier. You can buy it from the retailers in the paragraphs above or purchase it on eBay now from our featured sellers-CLICK HERE
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