The Jordan 1 silhouette has definitely become Nike’s secret weapon in the past four years. The brand continues to explore different possibilities with the 1’s and we haven’t been disappointed with most of the colorways we’ve been served. A week and half ago, the ladies were treated to the Air Jordan 1 UNC To Chi ( which was a great success), and this coming Saturday, the men take the center stage with the Air Jordan 1 OG Pine green. Last year, Nike released the Jordan 1 high pine green covered in white in the mid section, but the upcoming pair has an all black based with green pine green highlights. It’s definitely going to be sought after and my job today is to come up with a plausible estimate of the number of pairs made. To do that, we first have to take a quick count of the local major & minor retailers that will receive an inventory of the shoe.
Stockists
Beside Nike here are the major, minor retailers and sneaker boutiques that I’ve come across
Major Retailers: Footlocker, Footaction, Champs ( in stores and online),Eastbay ( online only) Hibbett, Finishline and Dick’s.
Minor Retailers: DTLR, Jimmy Jazz, Shoepalace, Sheikh, Eblens, Shoe City, KicksUSA,
Boutiques: Extra butter, Heightssw, and more
Now we need to set up our assumptions and run our numbers
Assumption &Numbers
- Nike will acquire 1/3 of the production, Footlocker, Footaction, Champs & Eastbay will also receive 1/3 , Finishline, Hibbett, Dick’s and all the minor retailers will receive the remaining 1/3
- We’ll assign an average of 24 pairs per FTL store, 18 per FTA store & 18 per Champs; and we’ll give the online stores about 1/3 of the total the physical stores are given.
- We’ll also assign an extra ⅓ to Eastbay from the combined online allocations from FTL, FTA and Champs
- We’ll also assume that ⅔ of each of the FTL, Champs and FTA were allocated that is 600 from FTL, 181 from FTA and 365 from Champs.
- Now let’s run our numbers.
Footlocker’s physical store numbers based on our assumptions: 24 x 600=14400 pairs
Footaction’s numbers ( physical sores): 181 x 18=3258 pairs
Champs numbers ( physical stores): 365 x 18=6570 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs) in stores= 24228 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs ) online=24228/3= 8076 pairs
Eastbay= 8076 /3= 2692 pairs
Grand Total from FTL & family ( online + in stores)= 24228 + 8076 +2692= 34996 pairs let say 35,000 pairs
Total based on Assumptions: 35,000 x 3=105,000 pairs for the USA and we can double or triple that number to estimate the worldwide production so I’ll say anywhere between 105,000 and 315,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Resale Value
The figure above shows you the average price per day since January the 24th. I calculated the overall average price and came up with $256, but that’s including the outliers ( irregular values). These were the irregular values
Set of outliers: {81, 170, 170, 170, 180, 326, 329, 346, 349, 350, 350, 362, 400, 525}
So I recalculated the average sale price after removing these values and came up with $255 ( a $1 less, not that significant). The value has slightly increase with time ( hence the somewhat positive trend). The shoe costs about $180 after tax, so folks can expect to make between $32 to $52 on this shoe for markups falling between 17.79% to 28.89%. Let’s see what sizes yield to the highest margins
Obviously you can see from the graph that the smaller the size, the better, sizes 7-8.5 recorded the best prices ranging from $269 to $294. Sizes 9-13 fell within the $230 to $268 range and we had another irregular size ( size 16)that hit the high $300’s. I wouldn’t recommend a size 16 since only 2 sales were recorded ( $225 and $500) and that can be very misleading since the sample size is too small. So from the graph, we can conclude that the best sizes to aim for are sizes 7-8.5 for profits ranging from $65 to $87.
There you have it folks
RELEASE INFORMATION
Air Jordan 1 OG High Pine Green
style#555088-030, $170 2/29
You can buy the shoes now on eBay from our featured sellers in the listings below
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