The Air Jordan 1 High Smoke Grey is officially releasing on July the 11th and will retail for $160. Let’s quickly try to figure out how many pairs could be made. So far here is the list of major, minor and boutiques that will be carrying this model.
Beside Nike here are the major, minor retailers and sneaker boutiques that I’ve come across
Boutiques: Extra butter, Bait, SNS, END + 79 more
Now we need to set up our assumptions and run our numbers. Remember that we’re treating this release as if local stores were still operational.
- Nike will acquire 1/4 of the production, Footlocker, Footaction, Champs & Eastbay will also receive 1/2 , Finishline, Hibbett, and all the minor retailers and local boutiques will receive the remaining 1/4
- We’ll assign an average of 24 pairs per regular FTL store, 70 per HOH store 18 per FTA store & 18 per Champs; and we’ll give the online stores about 1/3 of the total the physical stores are given.
- We’ll also assign an extra ⅓ to Eastbay from the combined online allocations from FTL, FTA and Champs
- We’ll also assume that ⅔ of each of the FTL, Champs and FTA were allocated that is 600 ( 170 HOH locations included) from FTL, 181 from FTA and 365 from Champs.
- Now let’s run our numbers.
Footlocker’s physical store numbers based on our assumptions: 24 x 430=10320 pairs
HOH allocation= 170 x 70=11900 pairs
Footaction’s numbers ( physical sores): 181 x 18=3258 pairs
Champs numbers ( physical stores): 365 x 18=6570 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs) in stores= 32048 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs ) online=32048/3= 10683 pairs
Eastbay= 10683 /3= 3561 pairs
Grand Total from FTL & family ( online + in stores)= 32048 + 10683+ 3561= 46292 pairs let say 50,000 pairs
Total based on Assumptions: 50,000 x 2=100,000 pairs for the USA and we can double or triple that number to estimate the worldwide production so I’ll say anywhere between 100,000 and 300,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Resale Value Based On Time for the Air Jordan 1 High Smoke Grey
The histogram shows you the average overall value of the shoe per day since July the 5th. You can clearly see that the shoe has been trending down but I don’t expect the resale value to go any lower than $250 by July the 11th. The regression line based on the model above is:
Resale Value= $313.4 -10.6* ( time elapsed since July 5)
So based on this model , the resale value of the shoe will be = $313.4-$10.6 ( 6)= $249.8 or let say $250 by Saturday.
The shoe costs about $160 before tax and roughly $171 after tax. Folks are looking at profit margins within the ($50-$80) for mark up between 33% and 47%. The shoe might suddenly increase in value by Saturday especially ( I’m sure it will sell out instantly via retail).
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