The Air Jordan 1 High OG “Satin Snake” is an all new ladies’s-special edition of the Air Jordan 1 that will be releasing in a few days. The shoe features a Gym Red, White, and Black color combination . It is built with smooth leather overlays and underlays with snake-like patterns at the heel and on the side swoosh logos. The shoe will retail for $170 and today we’ll attempt to come up with a plausible estimate of the number of pairs that might’ve been produced. Let’s quickly get a count of the stockists that will carry it upon release date ( we’ll only focus on stores located in North America for now). Beside Nike here is what we have,
Major Retailers: Footlocker, Champs, Footaction, Eastbay ( online), Finishline, JD Sports, Hibbett
Minor Retailers: DTLR/Ruvilla, Jimmy Jazz, Shoe City, Shoepalace so far
Now we need to set up our assumptions and run our numbers. We’ll once more treat this release as if local stores were still operational.
- Nike will acquire 1/4 of the production, Footlocker, Footaction, Champs & Eastbay will also receive 1/2 , Finishline, Hibbett, and all the minor retailers and local boutiques will receive the remaining 1/4
- We’ll assign an average of 24 pairs per regular FTL store, 70 per HOH store 18 per FTA store & 18 per Champs; and we’ll give the online stores about 1/4 of the total the physical stores are given.
- We’ll also assign an extra ⅓ to Eastbay from the combined online allocations from FTL, FTA and Champs
- We’ll also assume that ⅔ of each of the FTL, Champs and FTA were allocated that is 600 ( 170 HOH locations included) from FTL, 181 from FTA and 365 from Champs.
- Now let’s run our numbers.
Regular FTL store’s numbers: 24 x 430=10320 pairs
HOH allocation= 170 x 70=11900 pairs
Footaction’s numbers ( physical sores): 181 x 18=3258 pairs
Champs numbers ( physical stores): 365 x 18=6570 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs) in stores= 32048 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs ) online=32048/4= 8012 pairs
Eastbay= 8012 /3= 2671 pairs
Grand Total from FTL & family ( online + in stores)= 32048 + 8012+ 2671= 41731 pairs let say 45,000 pairs
Total based on Assumptions: 45,000 x 2=90,000 pairs for the USA
We can make some more inferences about the global production by doubling or tripling the number obtained and conclude that the total production could fall within the
90,000 < Number of Pairs Produced < 270,000
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Resale Value Based On Time for the Air Jordan 1 High OG Snake Red
The histogram above shows the average resale value per day between July the 23rd and August the 1st. You can clearly see that the shoe had an exorbitant resale value for the first three days since July the 23rd. It eventually dropped and steadied in the high $300’s. I calculated the overall average value with the outliers included ( irregular values) and came up with $388. Then I took the outliers out and recalculated the average again and came up with $377. Obviously this shoe is definitely going to sell out via retail instantly and is also a great acquisition for resale purposes. I’m assuming that the price will remain in the high $300’s even after that shoe releases. Folks are looking at profit margins within the ($160-$170) for mark ups within the (88%-94%) range. We can also take a look at the sizes that yield to the highest revernues.
You can clearly see that sizes 10.5-12 yield to the highest revenues ranging from $400-$433. All the other sizes are just as good as they are very close to our calculated average resale value ($377). You can pretty much figure out what sizes to aim for by looking at the chart above.
Air Jordan 1 High OG Satin Snake Red
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