The Air Jordan 1 High OG Pollen is set to officially release on August the 14th and retails for $170. This is a shoe that is targeted by many in the sneaker community , so you can expect it to be relatively hard to acquire. The color palette is Pollen, Black, and White. Pollen Yellow leather overlays and Swooshes complement the black tumbled leather basis of this Air Jordan 1. The shoe also features a Black Wings logo, “Nike Air” tongue tags, a White midsole, and a Yellow rubber outsole. Let’s try to come up with an estimate of the number of pairs made and the shoe’s current resale value. First let’s get a list of the major and minor chains given and inventory beside Nike.
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The next step is setting up our assumptions. We’ll go with the following
- Footlocker, Champs, Footaction and Eastbay will receive about 30% of the entire inventory for North America
- Finishline, JD sports, Hibbett will be given about 20% of the inventory
- Minor retailers and boutiques will be given 20% and Nike will also acquire 30% of the inventory
- FTL, Champs and Footaction online will receive about 1/3 of the inventory the physical stores are getting
Now we need to figure out the total number of Footlocker, Champs and Footaction stores that will be allocated. Once we get ahold of that number , we can also come up with the number of pairs given to each physical store and calculate our numbers. Based on my observations, I’ll assume 2/3 of all footlocker, and 1/3 of Footaction and Champs stores will be allocated, that is 667 FTLs, 183 Champs and 71 Footaction stores. Now we’ll also add the following assumptions:
- Regular Footlocker will be given about 24pairs per store
- HOH locations will receive 70 pairs
- Champs and Footaction will be given 24 pairs
Now let’s run our numbers:
Regular Footlocker locations: 497 x 24= 11928 pairs
HOH: 170 x 70=11900 pairs
Champs: 183 x 24=4392 pairs
Footaction: 70 x 24= 1680 pairs
(FTL+ Champs+ FTA) online= (11928+ 11,900+4392+ 1680)/3=9967 let say 10,000 pairs
Total for Footlocker and its derivatives= Online + In stores
Total =(29,900+10,000) pairs= 39,900 pairs let say 40,000 pairs
Since we assumed at the outset that this number represented about 30% of the entire inventory for North America then we can conclude that the Grand total for the USA= (40,000 x 3) pairs + (40,000/3 pairs=133333.333 let say 135,000 pairs
And we can conclude that the worldwide production will sit within the 135,000 pairs < global production < 270, 000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
I wrote a post on how to identify the fake Air Jordan 1 High OG Pollen, refer to the link below
Now let’s talk about resale
Jordan 1 Pollen Resale Value
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the average resale value by day since August the 10th. You can clearly see that there is a positive trend, which means that the value is increasing with time. It can be summarized the following linear equation.
Resale value= $6.59 x t ( time elapsed since Aug 10)+ $260
Based on the equation above, the average resale value by August the 14th will be: $6.59 x (4) + $260=$286.36.
This number is purely based on the equation of best fit, I believe the average value will fall within the $250-$270 range. There might be surprises though. Let me also give you a breakdown of the resale value by size.
img by shoepalace
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