The Women’s High Dunk Gum and Sail continues the rich tradition of Nike creations with clean lines, understated colors, and sturdy materials. This shoe stands tall with high-top supports for all-day comfort and a padded collar for an old school look rooted in quality construction, drawing on timeless design cues from ’80s b-ball culture. In this post, I’ll attempt to come up with an estimate of the possible number of pairs made and the shoe’s current resale value. First, let’s get a count of the retailers allocated an inventory.
Nike Dunk High Gum Sail Release Information
- MSRP:$110
- Release Date: 11/19/2021
- Style Code:DD1869-109
- Color: White / Sail / Gum Medium Brown
Retailers
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Stock Numbers
First, let’s set up some assumptions
Assumptions:
- We’ll give Nike US and Europe 70% of the inventory
- The other retailers will split the remaining 30%
Numbers
Because these are only for women, they will be available in sizes 5 to 12. Our next task is to estimate the number of pairs available in each size. To reflect Nike US stock, we’ll consider the following distribution.
sizes 5( 240 pairs), size 5.5 (360pairs, size 6(720 pairs), size 6.5 (960 pairs), size 7-7.5( 1500 pairs per size), size 8-8.5 (1600 pairs per size), size 9 (1400 pairs), size 9.5 (760pairs), size 10 (700 pairs),
siz10.5(240), size 11 (240) size 11.5(60), size 12 (120)
Let’s compute the Total: 240 + 360+720+960 +1500+1500+1600+1600+1400+760+240+240+60+120=11,300 pairs
We assumed that Nike US stock represented about 70% of the entire production, so the total number of pairs projected will be:
Total= (11,300 pairs) + ((11,300)/7) x 3= 16,143 pairs
I will conclude that the projected stock numbers will be between 12,000 pairs and 18000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Resale Value
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the average resale value per day since November the 9th. Based on the data the shoe’s current sale price is approximately $115. This number was found by taking the average of every size, so it is imperative that we look at each individual size separately. But this is still solid information to work with. Actually the equation above might help you with projecting the average resale value by November the 18th.
Value= $119-1.26 ln(9)=$116.23, so the overall average sale price will be right around $116.
Now let’s look at the sizes with the highest margins
The only profitable sizes are 10.5,11.5 and 12 according to the data. All other sizes yield to losses. The prices on StockX are literally less than retail and that’s because there is a great disruptor that most people are not aware of. I’m assuming that prices will go up within a 60 day period when the disruptor runs out of stock. So while this shoe may be tanking now, I believe there might be some changes by January. I’m still on the fence on it when it comes to buying it to resell. So it’s really up to you to make that decision.
