The Jordan 4 Lightning was recently released, and after being delayed on several occasions, the Air Jordan 4 Red Thunder will officially drop on January 15th, retailing for $190. You should be relieved that they don’t cost $220 an extra $30) like the Lightning 4s. This Red Thunder 4 has a suede nubuck upper, mesh quarter panel and tongue bottom, and a visible Air unit that leaves a lot to be desired. Its all-black top pays homage to classic styles, while Crimson accents on the mesh, midsole, eyestay, and liner lend a fiery touch. In this post, we’ll discuss where to buy the shoes, its projected stock numbers and current resale value. First, let’s get a count of the major and minor retailers receiving an inventory in addition to Nike.
Where To Buy The Air Jordan 4 Red Thunder
- Price:$190
- Release Date: 2022-01-15
- Style Code:CT8527-016
- Color: Black / White / Red
Major Retailers: Nike, Footlocker, Footaction, Champs, Dicks, Finishline ( see Release Calendar), JD Sports ( see release calendar), Hibbett
Minor Retailers: DTLR,( see release calendar), Jimmy Jazz, Shoepalace, Shiekh, Snipes, Ycmc
You can also purchase the Air Jordan 4 Crimson now on eBay from our featured sellers via authenticity guaranteed, CLICK HERE
Stock Numbers
We’ll rely mainly on the Jordan 4 Lightning data to estimate the amount of pairs that could be made. I came across something interesting that I’d like to share. There was a shock drop (Early Access) before the Lightning 4 officially hit retail, and Nike only issued roughly 15,000 pairs. Similarly, the Red Thunder 4 had an early access a few days ago, with 15,000 pairs made accessible. There’s a pattern there, and it’ll direct our projection. Let’s take a brief look at the current stock levels.
Based on the data above, the stock numbers are going to be high on most sizes save sizes 3.5-5. So we’ll build or pairs distribution per size based on the Lightning 4’s distribution. But first let’s establish our assumptions.
Assumptions
- We’ll give Nike about 20% of the entire production
- Footlocker, Champs, Footaction will get 30%
- And the remaining retailers will split the rest
Distribution
Since we’re only interested in adult sizes, we’ll begin, our starting point will be the size 7.
Size 7 (1000 pairs), size 7.5 ( 1500), size 8 ( 5000), size 8.5 ( 5240), size 9 ( 7500), size 9.5 (8500), size 10 ( 10,000), size 10.5 ( 10,260), size 11 ( 10,260), size 11.5 (5,000), size 12 ( 9,600), size 12.5 (800), size 13 ( 6,000),size 14 ( 1800), size 15 (800), size 16,17,18( 120 each).
Total= 83,620 and let’s add the 15,000 pairs for the early access and we end with a total of 98,620 pairs.
These huge numbers aren’t surprising; Nike has been talking about edit to amplify (offering people what they want) for a while, and the brand is also pushing DTC (Direct To Consumer). Since we assumed at the outset that these numbers made up about 20% of the total inventory,
Total for USA= 98,620 x 5=493,100 pairs and the production worldwide will sit between 400,000 pairs and 600,000 pairs
PS: As you are all aware, I am required to include this disclaimer because every estimate I make is solely dependent on assumptions that I have established. It’s only to give you an idea of what to expect; I don’t work for any of the brands/retailers mentioned. I’m only working with what I have to make plausible assumptions.
Now let’s see how the shoe is performing on third party marketplaces
Resale Value
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the current average sale price of the shoe since January 6, 2022. The price is trending down slowly and that’s to be expected. Based on the equation above, the average resale value will drop to roughly $375 by the time the shoe officially releases. But I don’t believe that will hold, I’ll adjust the information in a few days. Right now people are willing to pay these exorbitant prices because the earl access pairs were limited to only 15,000 pairs. You can expect the price to drop down to values from $280 to $300. It’s a black shoe, it’s obviously going to do better than the Lightning 4’s.
Let’s find our five number summary
Minimum: 320
Quartile Q1: 380
Median: 397
Quartile Q3: 413.75
Maximum: 559
25% of the shoes sold values from $320 to $380, 50% sold for prices between $380 and $413.75 and another 20% sold for prices from $413.75 to $559. Now there are outliers but they reveal some interesting things. Set of outliers: {320, 495, 499, 514, 521, 546, 547, 550, 559}. $320 is considered a low outlier , that’s insane. This reveals that most of the pairs will sell for more than $320. So it’s definitely safe to say that the average sale price by January 15 will be somewhere between $280 and $320. Now let me give you he sizes with the highest margins and some additional thoughts.
You can clearly see that all sizes are worth grabbing and reselling. But it’s important to note that most pairs will lose about 40% to 50% of their current resale value by the time the shoe officially releases. So if you can guarantee a pair now, sell it right away if you’re looking for immediate gratification. What about those looking for a long term investment, is the shoe worth sitting on?
The equation below might help for the long term option.
Resale Value= $9 (t) + $287, so I’m assuming that the Red Thunder 4 will be gaining about $9 every 25-35 days.
Projected Margins ( If you’ve paid retail)
| Time | Projected Resale Value | Profit ( Mark up) |
| June 2022 | $333.29 | +$102.29 (50.64%) |
| December 2022 | $379.57 | +$143.57 ( 71.07%) |
| March 2023 | $402.70 | +$160 (79.21%) |
Projected Margins ( if you pay the current resale value)
| Time | Projected Resale Value | Profit ( Mark up) |
| June 2022 | $333.29 | +$16.29 (5.82%) |
| December 2022 | $379.57 | +$65.57 (23.42%) |
| March 2023 | $402.70 | +$86.7 (30.96%) |
Paying resale for it right now may not pay off right away but it does have some potential, especially in a couple of years. If you can only afford one or two pairs, I wouldn’t recommend paying the resale price. But if you have capital sitting and you’re looking for a shoe to invest in, this might be worth it for the long term run.
In conclusion, the Jordan 4 Crimson is definitely a good shoe to target for resale purposes.
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