The Air Jordan 4 Fire Red is going to officially release on November the 28th and retails for $200. The Fired Red 4 released originally in 1989 and made several returns since its first introduction, in 2005 and 2012. Today we’ll try to figure out how many possible pairs were made and their current resale value. First let’s get a count of the stockists that were allocated an inventory in North America.
Now we can set up our assumptions and run our numbers next
We’ll go with the following:
- FTL, FTA & Champs will receive 40% of the total inventory
- The remaining major & minor retailers will receive the remaining ⅓
- Only 2/3 FTL, FTA and Champs stores will be allocated, that is 667FTL stores, 181 FTA and 365 Champs
- We also need to add that all HOH ( House of Hoops will receive the shoe), that is 170 HOH’s
We’ll also add the following assumptions:
- Each HOH will receive about 48 pairs, while regular FTL , FTA and Champs stores will be assigned 12 pairs per each
- FTL , Champs and FTA online stores will receive about a 1/2 of the total the physical stores are receiving
- Eastbay will also receive another 1/4 from the total FTL, FTA and Champs online are receiving.
Running The Numbers:
HOH = 170 x48=8160 pairs
regular FTL stores= (667-170) x 12 =5964 pairs
FTA Physical stores=181×12= 2172 pairs
Champs Physical stores= 365x 12=4380 pairs
Online allocation ( FTL + FTA + Champs)=( 8160/2) + (5964/2)+ (2172/2)+ (4380)/2=10338 pairs
Total For FTL & Derivatives= (8160+5964+2172+4380) + (10338) +(2585)=33,599 let say 35,000 pairs
We assumed at the outset that this number represented 40% of the total production for North America.
So based on this assumption, we can conclude that the total production for North America is,
Total= [( 35,000)+ (35,000)+ (17,500)] pairs= 87,500 pairs
and we’ll also conclude that the worldwide production will fall anywhere within the 80,000 pairs < Global Production <160,000 pairs, and that’s me being very conservative with these numbers. I believe the actual numbers will exceed the projected the numbers.
Now let’s talk about the Fire Red Jordan 4 resale value.
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the average resale value per day since October the 25th. You can clearly see the presence of a few outliers, notably $500, $469 and even $404. There was a shock drop via SNKRS , that explains why there were such high values. So I took away the outliers and calculated the current resale value and came up with about $290. You can expect this shoe to resell for anywhere between ($260-$300). I usually assume that the shoe will lose about 10% of its resale value by the time it releases but I doubt this will happen with the Fire Red 4. Now let’s see the resale value by size.
Obviously very small sizes (sz4-6) yield to the highest returns. Sizes 7-14 are pretty much consistent with the projected resale value. You can use the chart above to see what sizes to aim for. What can you expect profit wise? The shoe costs about $212 after tax if you live in Maryland so profit margins will fall within the ($40-$60) for mark ups within the (19%-29%). The Fire Red 4 will certainly sell out instantly.
Product Information/ Where To Buy
Air Jordan 4 Fire Red
Colors: White/Black Grey and Red
Style Number: DC7770-169
Release Date: November 28th, 2020
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