The Air Jordan 3 Knicks will officially release on September the 14th and I initially I thought that the shoe was going be limited. A quick glimpse on third party marketplaces was enough to show that retailers might be in for another rough week end. I’ll show you my findings further down; one thing we can all be clear about is the fact that the sneaker will be easy to get. I took a look at several retailers’s release calendar and nearly all major and minor chains will carry the shoes upon release date. Since Footlocker & its derivatives ( Footaction and Champs) provide the most information to work with, I’ll continue to lean on their data to come up with my estimates.
I included the chart above to give you a better illustration of what the map revealed. I had to go through the brutal task of inserting each “state” in the locator’s search box to check the number of stores confirmed. I’m saying this to say that as confident as I am about my findings, there could be some errors due to the inaccuracy of the locator ( so take everything with a grain of salt). Now let’s set up our assumptions and make our predictions:
1.Footlocker, Footaction and Champs will receive about 1/3 of the entire inventory and all minor retailers together will also be given a third of the entire inventory ( this only applies to North America only)
2. Their online locations will receive about 1/4 of the inventory the stores are getting.
2. .Eastbay will receive about a 1/4 of the number all three online locations are receiving
.Each physical location will receive an average of 18 pairs ( 18 since some House of hoops may receive close to 70 pairs so I need a solid average for the sake of sanity)
FTL numbers= 335 x 18=6030 and FTA = 142x 18=2556 and Champs= 141 x 18= 2538 Now let’s estimate the online stores’s numbers,
(FTL + FTA+ Champs )online = (6030 +2556+2538)/4=2781
Eastbay will receive about 2781/4=696 ( rounded off already)
and the Total from Footlocker & derivatives = 6030+2556+2538+ 2781+ 696=12062.25 let say 12,000 pairs
And the Grand Total would be =12000 x 3=36000 pairs for North America and let say 72,000 pairs worldwide ( I’m assuming that the rest of the world will receive just as much as the USA).
SHOULD YOU COP TO FLIP?
I usually rely on eBay and StockX’s records to decide whether a shoe has a good resale value or not. But today I will incorporate Kixify’s numbers since the platform has recorded more sales than eBay. So far only 4 pairs have been sold via eBay in the following order: $239.99 (sz 12),$240 ( sz9,sz10.5) and $279.99 (sz10 and that on August the 10th). Based on these records, the average value is $249.99 and this is deceiving. Why am I saying that? The $279.99 sale occurred on August the 10th about a month and half ago; and that value ought to be considered an outlier because of its irregularity. So I’ll only lean on the recent sales ( $239.99, $240 and $240) to find my average which is therefore $239.99 ( approximately $240).
Kixify’s records are as follows: $265 ( 10 pairs sold, the platform doesn’t provide details on the sizes sold), $255 ( 3 pairs sold). Hence the average value based on these records is ( $265 x 10+$255 x 3)/13=$262.69
StockX’s average is about $210 and the platform has recorded the highest number of sales ( 24) and it makes perfect sense.
StockX has the lowest average sale value but also the highest number of sales recorded ( 24). Kixify has the highest average sale value at $262 with 13 sales recorded. eBay comes in last with the lowest number of sales recorded and an average sale value of $240,. Logic says that one is better off selling this shoe on Kixify. But common sense says stay away from it because stockX has proven to be the primary destination for folks when it comes to high end sneakers. The shoe has a retail value of $190 before tax; if you reside in Maryland you’d be paying about $201.5 after tax. And with an average value of $210, you will be at a deficit so the verdict is- DON’T BUY TO FLIP. And for retailers, I’m concluding that it will be another rough week end. Third party marketplaces are not only recording very insignificant sales but the shoe is also available already below retail at $195 via stockX,
PRODUCT PICTURE/ INFORMATION AND WHERE TO BUY?
Air Jordan 3 Knicks ” Rivals”
style#136064-148, $190, 9/14/2019
Or you can buy it now on eBay from our featured sellers in the listings below
Listings from eBay