I already wrote a post in which I was trying to figure out whether the $190 price tag on the Air Jordan 4 Cool Grey could be justified, see post below
In this current post, I’m going to be estimating the number of pairs of the Cool Grey 4 that Nike possibly made. I can tell you right away that there is a rapid infestation of this model via retail from what I observed by collecting data from Footlocker & family. But let me still go to my usual assumption to come up with a believable estimate.
- Footlocker and its derivatives will receive about 1/4 of the total inventory
- Each physical FTL receives 18 pairs, FTA and Champs probably 12 pairs
- And their online counterparts ( Eastbay included) will receive about a quarter of the inventory the physical locations will be allocated.
- North America has a little over 1000 active Footlocker stores, 500 Champs stores and 210 Footaction stores and those are the ones that will be considered.
Physical Stores: Footlocker ( 1000 x 18) + Champs ( 500 x 12) + Footaction (210 x 12)= 26520 pairs
Online allocations: A quarter of the total number 26520/4=6630
let’s not forget give Eastbay a 1/4 of the total from the FTL,FTA, Champs online combined
So the Total from Footlocker and derivatives =26520 +6630+1658 =34808 or let say 35,000
And now the Grand total is based on our earlier assumptions: 35000×4=140000
PS:I always want to point out that all these predictions are purely based on assumptions in other words, everything I said here was birthed out of my own subjective assertions.
MARKET VALUE & SHOULD YOU BUY TO FLIP?
I’ll make it very easy and invite you to leave this shoe alone if your intention is to buy it for “resale” purposes. If you don’t believe, let me quickly show you how the shoe is performing on third party marketplaces
let’s start with eBay and quickly analyze the histogram below
Most of the sales occurred between the $220-$239 and $240-$259 price range. So to be pragmatic we’ll try to establish our average based on numbers in this interval, hence we can set the average price at $239.5 ( using $220 and $259 as our endpoints) The shoe costs about $190 before tax ( $201+ after tax if you reside in Maryland). If you take the additional paypal, eBay and shipping fees you’ll be at a deficit; even if you’re fortunate enough to use the $10, $15 or $20 discount from your local retailer, you might end up with a $5 bonus. So be wise and leave the shoe for folks that actually want it; retailers will definitely move these off their shelves, the third party marketplace sales are good indicator of how the shoe is going to perform retail wise. I won’t be checking Stockx’s records, the one above will suffice.
2019 Air Jordan 4 Cool Grey
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