The Air Jordan 3 Denim Fire Red is officially releasing on August the 1st and will retail for $200. I’m not sure what inspired this model beside “making more money”. This shoe is basically a hybrid of the original Fired 3, it features a white leather upper with matching tongue and laces. The only new elements added are the denim patches on the eyelets, heel and forefoot area. Additional details include some touches of red, a semi-translucent tab at the back featuring the customary Nike air Logo and a subtle jumpman. Today we’ll try to come up with an estimate of the number of pairs that might’ve been produced. Let’s first get a quick count of the stockists allocated an inventory.
Beside Nike here are the major, minor retailers and sneaker boutiques that I’ve come across
Major Retailers: Footlocker Europe
Minor Retailers: Shoe City (USA)
Now we need to set up our assumptions and run our numbers. This shoe is obviously very limited so we are standing on really shaky grounds. We’ll build our assunptions based on what we know from international retailers/boutiques.
- Nike will acquire 1/4 of the production, Footlocker Europe will also receive 1/2 , and all the local boutiques will receive the remaining 1/4
- We’ll assign an average of 36 pairs per regular FTL store, and we’ll give the e-commerce store about 1/3 of the total the physical stores are given
- Footlocker Europe has about 228 operational stores ( we’ll assume that each one of them will be given the shoe).
- We’ll assume that Europe will receive 1/3 of the total inventory that is produced globally
- Let’s run our numbers
Footlocker’s physical store numbers based on our assumptions: 228 x 36=8208 pairs
Footlocker online= 8208/3=2736 pairs
Footlocker Europe total= 8208 + 2736=10944 pairs let’s stretch this number to 12,000 pairs.
Europe’s total based on assumptions is= 12,000 x 2= 24,000 pairs and if this number represents 1/3 of the global number of pairs produced then we can assume that the total number of pairs made will fall within the (72,000 pairs to 80,000 pairs) range
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Resale Value Based On Time for the Air Jordan 3 Fire Red Denim
There isn’t that much data to work with as the number of recorded sales was very low ( so far only single digit ) . That is a great indicator of how limited the shoe is. So I would even go as far saying that the number of pairs produced might be less than 50k. The average resale value on July the 28th was $350 and it dropped to $314 by Wednesday. Don’t let these numbers deceive you into thinking that the shoe is trending down. I’m expecting the resale value to remain in the mid $300’s. Folks can expect profit margins to fall within the ($60-$106) for mark ups within the ( 29% to 505) range. The shoe is certainly going to sell out instantly.
Air Jordan 3 Denim Fire Red
Style # CZ6433-100
Release Date: August 1 2020, $200
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