The Air Jordan 12 Dark Concord is releasing officially on October the 23rd and retails for $190. I wrote a post yesterday about fake pairs that are already circulating on the market, see link below
This morning we’re going to try to come up with an estimate of the possible number of pairs made and the shoe’s current resale value. It’s certainly going to be available in considerable numbers but I do believe it will sell relatively well via retail. We first need to come with up with a list of stockists allocated an inventory beside Nike.
Minor US Retailers: DTLR, Jimmy Jazz, ShoePalace
Now we can set up our assumptions and run our numbers next
We’ll go with the following:
- FTL, FTA & Champs will receive ⅓ of the total inventory
- The remaining major & minor retailers will receive the remaining ⅓
- Only 2/3 FTL, FTA and Champs stores will be allocated, that is 667FTL stores, 181 FTA and 365 Champs
- We also need to add that all HOH ( House of Hoops will receive the shoe), that is 170 HOH’s
We’ll also add the following assumptions:
- Each HOH will receive about 48 pairs, while regular FTL , FTA and Champs stores will be assigned 18 pairs per each
- FTL , Champs and FTA online stores will receive about a 1/2 of the total the physical stores are receiving
- Eastbay will also receive another 1/4 from the total FTL, FTA and Champs online are receiving.
Running The Numbers:
HOH = 170 x48=8160 pairs
regular FTL stores= (667-170) x 18 =8946pairs
FTA Physical stores=181×18= 3258 pairs
Champs Physical stores= 365x 18=6570 pairs
Online allocation ( FTL + FTA + Champs)=( 8160/2) + (8946/2)+ (3258/2)+ (6570)/2=13467 pairs
Total from FTL, FTA, Champs and Eastbay = (8160+ 8946+3258+6570+ 13467+3367) pairs =43768 pairs and we can stretch this number to 45000 pairs because of possible errors in the assumptions.
Since we said that this number represented about 1/3 of the total for most US retailers then
The Total production for the USA is = 45,000 x3=135000 pairs
And for the overall worldwide production of the Jordan 12 Dark Concord, we’ll assume that 135,000 pairs < Total production < 280,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
We’ve obviously discovered that the shoe is going to be available in massive numbers, now let’s see how it is performing on third party marketplaces.
The chart above gives you an overall breakdown of the average resale value of the Air Jordan 12 Dark Concord by day since October the 11th. It’s very obvious that the shoe is trending down; the resale value is decreasing at a rate of $8 and some change per day. I came up with the equation of the line that best fits the data,
Resale Value= $315-$8.35x (t= time elapsed since 10/11)
Basically based on the model ,we can predict that the value of the shoe by its release date will be:
Resale value on Release Day= $315- $8.35 x (12)= $214
So basically the shoe will probably be reselling for no more than $214 based on the model. I’ll say that is overall resale value will fall within the $210 < Resell < $230
Now for those that are looking to buy this shoe to make profit, I’ll strongly advise you to leave it alone, and her is why
The Retail price is $190 before tax and roughly $202 after tax. If you consider the selling fees associated with the shoe, you’re looking at profit margins within the ($1-$7) range and I’m being very generous ( you might actually be losing money).
In conclusion , I’ll say that the Dark Concord 12 will sell relatively well via Retail but it is definitely not a shoe to buy for resale purposes.
Product Information/ Where To Buy
- Release Date:10-23-2020
- Style Code:CT8013-005
- Color:Black / Black / Dark Concord
You can buy authentic pairs from our featured sellers on eBay, CLICK HERE or banner below
You can also watch the video of this presentation
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