The women’s Air Jordan 1 Satin Black Toe Satin was originally supposed to release on August the 31st but Nike decided to drop the shoe a two weeks early. I don’t know the reason behind this change in date and I’m not willing to speculate on it. My task this morning is to figure out the possible number of units Nike will put on the market. To do that we’ll quickly take an inventory of the stockists that will carry this model on Saturday.
Major Retailers: Nike ( of course), Footlocker, Footaction, Champs, Finishline, Hibbett in stores and online; let me also add Eastbay ( another Footlocker’s family member)
Minor Retailers: JD sports, DTLR/Ruvilla, ShoePalace, Shoe City, Citygear, Shopnicekicks (online only). These are the only ones that I can confirm so far.
The hardest part now is setting up my assumptions; to have a clearer picture how limited the shoe is, let’s take a look at Footlocker & family’s launch locator map. see pictures below
Footaction didn’t give me much to work with since the only available information was the shoe showing on he site’s release calendar; so I had to come up with a number by creating a pattern from Footlocker and Champs. Out of the 1000 Footlocker stores only 102 were allocated an inventory, and out of the 547 Champs stores, only 60 were allocated. We can establish a ratio with this information
102/1000=0.102 and 60/547=0.109 so abotu 10% of the locations are getting the shoe so we can estimate the number of footactions allocated using this ration, hence FTA allocated= 270 x 0.10=27 let say 30.
Now we can establish our assumptions and compute our numbers:
- Footlocker and its derivatives will receive about 1/4 of the total inventory
- Each physical FTL receives 36 pairs, FTA and Champs probably 18 pairs
- And their online counterparts ( Eastbay included) will receive about a half of the inventory the physical locations will be allocated.
Physical Stores: Footlocker ( 102 x 36) + Champs ( 60 x 18) + Footaction (30 x18)= 5292 pairs
Online allocations: A quarter of the total number 5292/2=2646
let’s not forget give Eastbay a 1/2 of the total from the FTL,FTA, Champs online combined
So the Total from Footlocker and derivatives =5292+2646+1323=9261 let say 9500
so the Grand Total for North America will be therefore 9500 x4=38000 and if we consider the rest of the world, we can multiply that number by 2 and get a global total of :
38,000 x 2=76000 pairs Worldwide
PS:I always want to point out that all these predictions are purely based on assumptions in other words, everything I said here was birthed out of my own subjective assertions.
MARKET VALUE & SHOULD YOU BUY TO FLIP?
This shoe doesn’t need a thorough breakdown because its current market value on StockX is incredible, see screenshot below
I won’t even waste any time checking eBay’s records this morning, the shoe has an almost 500% mark up and its current market value is $738. The bottom left corner of the screenshot is showing you the sizes with the highest value ( 10 and up). I can guarantee you that sizes 11-14 will probably be reselling for $1000+ by the time shoe drops. So Should You Buy To Flip????
WHERE TO BUY THE AIR JORDAN 1 SATIN BLACK TOE?
Or you can preorder them on eBay now from our featured sellers in the listings below