The Jordan 1 silhouette continues its dominion as Nike keeps spitting out newer colorways of the model. Releasing on May the 9th is the Air Jordan 1 OG Royal Toe. The shoe features black leather overlays with white leather on the side panels and game royal on the collar and toe box. The technical features are similar to any other Jordan 1 model. This morning we’ll be talking about how many pairs of the shoe were possibly made and their current resale value. First let’s take a quick count of the major and minor retailers that were allocated an inventory.
Beside Nike here are the major, minor retailers and sneaker boutiques that I’ve come across
Boutiques: Renarts, Sam Tabak, Courtside Sneakers,END, Naked,Stress, Exclucity, Hanon, and more
Now we need to set up our assumptions and run our numbers; that’s the difficult part because of the COVID-19. We’ll treat this release as if stores were still running their physical locations and construct our assumptions in keeping with this premise.
- Nike will acquire 1/3 of the production, Footlocker, Footaction, Champs & Eastbay will also receive 1/3 , Finishline, Hibbett, Dick’s and all the minor retailers will receive the remaining 1/3
- We’ll assign an average of 24 pairs per FTL store, 12 per FTA store & 12 per Champs; and we’ll give the online stores about 1/3 of the total the physical stores are given.
- We’ll also assign an extra ⅓ to Eastbay from the combined online allocations from FTL, FTA and Champs
- We’ll also assume that ⅔ of each of the FTL, Champs and FTA were allocated that is 600 from FTL, 181 from FTA and 365 from Champs.
- Now let’s run our numbers.
Footlocker’s physical store numbers based on our assumptions: 24 x 600=14400 pairs
Footaction’s numbers ( physical sores): 181 x 12=2172 pairs
Champs numbers ( physical stores): 365 x 12=4380 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs) in stores= 20952 pairs
Total ( FTL+ FTA+ Champs ) online=20952/3= 6984 pairs
Eastbay= 6984/3= 2328 pairs
Grand Total from FTL & family ( online + in stores)= 20952 + 6984 +2328= 30264 pairs
Total based on Assumptions: 30,264 x 3=90792 pairs for the USA and we can double or triple that number to estimate the worldwide production so I’ll say anywhere between 90,000 and 270,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Resale Value of the Jordan 1 OG Royal Toe
You can see from the chart above that the sneaker has been increasing in value with time; in 4 days it went from an average daily value of $268 to $297 ( basically a $9.7 increase per day). That is great news but it can also be influenced by possible outliers ( irregular values) , although I highly doubt it. The shoe costs about $170 before tax so with these averages folks are looking at profits margins between $62 and $89 ( for mark ups between 34.25% and 49.71%). These are pretty decent mark ups. Now let’s look at the average third party market values by size.
You can clearly see from the histogram above that sizes 7-9.5 recorded the highest revenues ( $295 to $323) for profit margins between $86 and $112, so you know what to aim for as far resale is concerned. The lowest sales recorded were from sizes 14 and 15 which makes perfect sense ( those aren’t very common sizes). Sizes 10-13 also recorded very decent returns, with values ranging from $260 to $277 for profit margins between $54 and $70. So the verdict on this shoe is- you can definitely make some money on it, and retailers will sell out of the model instantly.
Where To Buy The Air Jordan 1 Royal Toe Now?
You can buy it on eBay right now from our featured sellers in the listings below