The Air Jordan 1 Bred Toe dropped almost a month ago and sold out instantly. I did a study on its market value a few days before the official release date, you can read the entire post by clicking the link below
I actually thought the price would drop upon release date but to my surprise it went up and is still increasing as time goes. I estimated that 975,000 pairs were made but I may have been wrong about this number. I’m going to revise that number: I counted a total of 196 Footlocker stores, 272 stores in North America. If I’m assuming that each store is allocated about 18 pairs then we end up with :
(1796 x 18) + (272 x 18)=32328 + 4896=37,224 that is just in physical locations.
I’m also assuming that the online locations will get about the same amount so 37.224 x 2=74,448
Let’s also assume that Footlocker/Footaction get about 1/3 of the entire inventory hence the total number released will be:
74,448 x 3=223,344 but let’s say 300,000 ( I know I didn’t round off the number the right way but 300,000 seems more like a feasible number for me based on the current performance of the shoes as of now.
Now that I’ve established this, let’s see how much the Air Jordan 1 Bred Toe is doing now on eBay and let’s make a prediction on how the shoe will perform in six months. Collecting data on eBay can be tricky with the amount of fakes that are on there. So I disregarded sellers with feedback 100 and below. I only added sold listings from power sellers and sellers with a receipt included. Here is my data:
$375,$369.99,$379.99,$280,$334.99,$399,,$290,$325,$360,$389, $369,$340, $399, $320,$320,$330,$319.99,$310, $350, $315,$370. And to find the average selling price all we have to do is add all the numbers and divide by the total.
$7245.98 /21= $345.04 ( As of March 19)
So let’s also check the selling price of the shoes a few days after it was released. I chose February the 27th and I also collected my data from eBay: $325, $340,$290,$300,$330,$320,$300,$301,$350,$320,$320,$290,$350,$330,$350,$340,$350,$320,$315,$342,$340,$320
$7133/22=$324.227 ( As of February 27)
To estimate the value of the shoes in six months, we must find the rate at which it’s increasing each month. Let’s consider the following data points:
February, starting point: (0, $325), March, current point (1,$345) so the rate R is :
R=( $345-$325)/ (1-0)= $20
So the shoes is increasing by $20 every month so in six months the value will be :
Original Value ($325)+ $20 x 6= $325 + $120= $445
So in six months, the Air Jordan 1 Bred Toe will probably have a market value of $445+.
You can always buy the shoes now on eBay from our featured sellers, see listings below
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