The Air Jordan 1 High Dark Mocha is set to release officially on October the 31st and will retail for $170. The shoe was certainly inspired by the success of the Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 “Cactus Jack”. Nike has been sticking with the Edit To Amplify campaign with many of the releases we’ve been served. The Mocha 1 features an off-white leather upper with black leather overlays at the forefoot while the heel and upper eyelets feature brown suede. Nike Air branding on the tongue, a Wings logo at the ankle and a white sole combined with a black outsole, finalize the design of Peter Moore. Today we’ll try to come up with an estimate of the number of pairs that were possibly made and we’ll also look at the shoe current resale value. Here is a list of stockists that will carry the shoe beside Nike
Now we can set up our assumptions and run our numbers next
We’ll go with the following:
- FTL, FTA & Champs will receive 1/2 of the total inventory
- The remaining major & minor retailers will receive the remaining 1/2
- Only 2/3 FTL, FTA and Champs stores will be allocated, that is 667FTL stores, 181 FTA and 365 Champs
- We also need to add that all HOH ( House of Hoops will receive the shoe), that is 170 HOH’s
We’ll also add the following assumptions:
- Each HOH will receive about 48 pairs, while regular FTL , FTA and Champs stores will be assigned 12 pairs per each
- FTL , Champs and FTA online stores will receive about 3/4 of the total the physical stores are receiving
- Eastbay will also receive another 1/5 from the total FTL, FTA and Champs online are receiving.
Running The Numbers:
HOH = 170 x48=8160 pairs
regular FTL stores= (667-170) x 12 =5964pairs
FTA Physical stores=181×12= 2172 pairs
Champs Physical stores= 365x 12=4380 pairs
Online allocation ( FTL + FTA + Champs)=( 8160 + 5964+ 2172+ 4380) x 3/4=15507 pairs
Total from FTL, FTA, Champs and Eastbay = ( 8160 + 5964+ 2172+ 4380+ 15507+3102) pairs =39285 pairs let say 40,000 pairs because of errors in the assumptions
Since we said that this number represented about 1/2 of the total for most US retailers then
The Total production for the USA is = 40,000 x2=80,000 pairs
And we can say that the global production will fall within the 80,000 pairs < Total Number of Pairs produced < 250,000 pairs
PS: As you all know, I always have to add this disclaimer because every single projection that I make is purely based on assumptions that I have set. It is meant to give you an idea of what to expect, I don’t work any of these brands/retailers I mentioned and have no access to their numbers. I’m only using what is available to create plausible assumptions.
Now let’s talk about the current resale value of the Air Jordan 1 High Dark Mocha
The chart above gives you a breakdown of the overall resale value by day since October the 22nd. You can clearly see that the average resale value falls within the ($360-$373) price range. I don’t think the value is going to decrease significantly when the shoe officially drops. This is a shoe that is highly sought after, its value might drop down to $320 when on the day it releases. But you can expect it to increase as time progresses. Folks are looking at profit margins within the ($100-$140) for mark ups within the (55% to 77%). Let’s quickly take a look at sizes with the highest revenues.
You can pretty much see what sizes lead to the highest revenues, the smaller the size the higher the return. I’ll let you decide what sizes to aim for.
- Release Date:10-31-2020
- Style Code:555088-105
- Color:Sail / Dark Mocha / Black / Black
You can purchase the Jordan 1 Black Mocha now on eBay from our featured sellers, CLICK HERE or banner below
img courtesy of houseofheat
You can also watch the video of this presentation